Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pistons, while the market favors 76ers (53%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pistons (-14.5)

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (33%) · Pistons at 47¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Pistons47¢76ers53¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons47%

76ers53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares5,497

Combined PnL$-1.2K

76ers2 traders

Total Value$16.74

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$5.22

Pistons — 33%76ers — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pistonsavg 44.2¢	$5.5K	$1.3K	$-1.2K	46% 338-390 (728)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	76ersavg 72.1¢	$816.81	$869.66	+$52.86	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 72.1¢	$593.7	$436.52	-$157.18
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 24.2¢	$223.1	$433.14	+$210.04
AN Anon455<$100	76ersavg 78.4¢	$15.19	$10.27	-$4.92	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
HRTrading<$100	76ersavg 79¢	$6.77	$6.47	-$0.3	56% 1934-1543 (3477)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pistons

Invested

$5,496.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

46%

338-390 (728)

takeormakeARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$816.81

Value

$869.66

PnL

+$52.86

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

Both legs:

76ers$593.772.1¢-$157.18

Pistons$223.124.2¢+$210.04

Anon455<$100

76ers

Invested

$15.19

Value

$10.27

PnL

-$4.92

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

HRTrading<$100

76ers

Invested

$6.77

Value

$6.47

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.