Spread: Pistons (-10.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (67%) · 76ers at 61¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25

Pistons39¢76ers61¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

-$155.18

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 61¢

-16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons39%

76ers61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,631

Combined PnL-$149.58

Pistons2 traders

Total Value$23.67

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$5.59

76ers — 67%Pistons — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pistonsavg 46.4¢	$7.0K	$6.6K	-$394.42	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 58.5¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$91.68
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 46.4¢	$3.5K	$3.0K	-$486.1
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Pistonsavg 47.5¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$200.37	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 57.2¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$261.5
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 47.5¢	$1.1K	$662.83	-$461.87
AN Anon455	76ersavg 73.8¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$151.01	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Pistonsavg 43.1¢	$469.64	$496.45	+$26.81	46% 328-382 (710)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 43.1¢	$383.19	$396	+$12.8
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 47.8¢	$86.45	$100.46	+$14.01
HRTrading<$100	76ersavg 49.6¢	$28.76	$33.67	+$4.91	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 66¢	$24.26	$19.12	-$5.15	49% 359-381 (740)
SH shoemanhere<$100	76ersavg 62¢	$13.64	$10.56	-$3.08	63% 4969-2963 (7932)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 28¢	$5	$4.55	-$0.45	62% 23778-14304 (38082)
RL RLWG<$100	76ersavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.4	-$0.4	51% 4438-4219 (8657)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$7,003.38

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$394.42

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

Both legs:

76ers$3,494.2158.5¢+$91.68

Pistons$3,509.1746.4¢-$486.1

takeormakeARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2,137.04

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$200.37

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

Both legs:

76ers$1,012.3557.2¢+$261.5

Pistons$1,124.747.5¢-$461.87

Anon455

76ers

Invested

$1,548.86

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$151.01

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$469.64

Value

$496.45

PnL

+$26.81

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

Both legs:

Pistons$383.1943.1¢+$12.8

76ers$86.4547.8¢+$14.01

HRTrading<$100

76ers

Invested

$28.76

Value

$33.67

PnL

+$4.91

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$24.26

Value

$19.12

PnL

-$5.15

Record

49%

359-381 (740)

shoemanhere<$100

76ers

Invested

$13.64

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$3.08

Record

63%

4969-2963 (7932)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.45

Record

62%

23778-14304 (38082)

RLWG<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

51%

4438-4219 (8657)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.