Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 44¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$3.2K
-$108.23
45.2¢ → 43.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 45.5¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$116.56 | 54% 16692-14013 (30705) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $440 | $450 | +$10 | 53% 5465-4807 (10272) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $113.18 | $111.96 | -$1.21 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $23.09 | $23.17 | +$0.09 | 58% 27838-20469 (48307) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 45.3¢ | $13.6 | $13.5 | -$0.55 | 56% 6824-5466 (12290) |
Invested
$2,642.19
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$116.56
Record
54%
16692-14013 (30705)
Invested
$440
Value
$450
PnL
+$10
Record
53%
5465-4807 (10272)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$113.18
Value
$111.96
PnL
-$1.21
Record
58%
40340-29132 (69472)
Invested
$23.09
Value
$23.17
PnL
+$0.09
Record
58%
27838-20469 (48307)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$13.6
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$0.55
Record
56%
6824-5466 (12290)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.