Pistons vs. Knicks

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (100%) · Knicks at 61¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 28

Pistons40¢Knicks60¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$66.28

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 60.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons40%

Knicks61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks7 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares7,933

Combined PnL+$66.28

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrKnicks 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Knicksavg 59¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$42.48	54% 16692-14013 (30705)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 59¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$0
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 39.5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$42.48
0X 0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513	Knicksavg 60¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$21.97	54% 252-215 (467)
VeryLucky888	Knicksavg 59.3¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	+$45.11	58% 40340-29132 (69472)
HI hi774c	Knicksavg 59¢	$415.16	$415.16	-$0	52% 4641-4342 (8983)
CA Cannae	Knicksavg 60¢	$268.97	$264.49	-$4.48	53% 15678-13855 (29533)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Knicksavg 60¢	$86.96	$90.76	+$3.7	52% 291-264 (555)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Knicksavg 59.7¢	$53.86	$54	+$0.14	58% 27838-20469 (48307)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 59.7¢	$32.26	$32.67	+$0.41
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 40¢	$21.6	$21.33	-$0.27
0xheavy888<$100	Knicksavg 59¢	$11.8	$11.8	-$0	56% 6824-5466 (12290)
SA SapporoAsahi<$100	Knicksavg 60¢	$1.57	$1.56	-$0.01	36% 92-167 (259)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$4,791.66

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$42.48

Record

54%

16692-14013 (30705)

Both legs:

Knicks$3,676.8959¢-$0

Pistons$1,114.7739.5¢+$42.48

0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513

Knicks

Invested

$2,636.21

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$21.97

Record

54%

252-215 (467)

VeryLucky888

Knicks

Invested

$2,471.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$45.11

Record

58%

40340-29132 (69472)

hi774c

Knicks

Invested

$415.16

Value

$415.16

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

4641-4342 (8983)

Cannae

Knicks

Invested

$268.97

Value

$264.49

PnL

-$4.48

Record

53%

15678-13855 (29533)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Knicks

Invested

$86.96

Value

$90.76

PnL

+$3.7

Record

52%

291-264 (555)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$53.86

Value

$54

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

27838-20469 (48307)

Both legs:

Knicks$32.2659.7¢+$0.41

Pistons$21.640¢-$0.27

0xheavy888<$100

Knicks

Invested

$11.8

Value

$11.8

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

6824-5466 (12290)

SapporoAsahi<$100

Knicks

Invested

$1.57

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$0.01

Record

36%

92-167 (259)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrKnicks 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.