Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (92%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 8.5¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$142.44

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 8.5¢

-81% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$871.82

Total Shares2,366

Combined PnL-$179.19

Under3 traders

Total Value$156.12

Total Shares223

Combined PnL+$36.75

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 55.7¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$31.12	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.7¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$53.66
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$749.12	$664.35	-$84.77
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 43¢	$430	$430	+$0	53% 5383-4728 (10111)
RN1CTR	Overavg 43.7¢	$331.92	$326.82	-$5.1	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 48¢	$268.85	$95.22	-$173.63	48% 413-442 (855)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 49¢	$54.39	$92.13	+$37.74	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 58¢	$57.42	$56.43	-$0.99	63% 7864-4668 (12532)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$20.24	$19.78	-$0.46	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 57¢	$7.56	$7.56	+$0	62% 3928-2392 (6320)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,018.77

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$31.12

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Under$2,269.6555.7¢+$53.66

Over$749.1248.5¢-$84.77

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$430

Value

$430

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5383-4728 (10111)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$331.92

Value

$326.82

PnL

-$5.1

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$268.85

Value

$95.22

PnL

-$173.63

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$54.39

Value

$92.13

PnL

+$37.74

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$57.42

Value

$56.43

PnL

-$0.99

Record

63%

7864-4668 (12532)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.24

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$0.46

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$7.56

Value

$7.56

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

3928-2392 (6320)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.9%

8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$907.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

1007.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.