Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 54¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 26

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

-$34.96

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 53.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares9,994

Combined PnL-$49.55

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,460

Combined PnL+$14.59

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$31.4	54% 16108-13511 (29619)
IC ic4cream	Underavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$13.38	59% 2576-1811 (4387)
ComingBackCTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$20.41	62% 3801-2301 (6102)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47.4¢	$836.45	$820	-$16.45	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 48¢	$480	$485	+$5	53% 5353-4694 (10047)
RN1CTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$237.5	$242.5	+$5	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 51¢	$243.48	$238.71	-$4.77	50% 1083-1075 (2158)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$68.93	$69.17	+$0.09	57% 26839-19987 (46826)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 46.7¢	$14	$14.55	+$0.55	56% 6726-5390 (12116)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,554.12

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$31.4

Record

54%

16108-13511 (29619)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$1,391.52

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$13.38

Record

59%

2576-1811 (4387)

ComingBackCTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$20.41

Record

62%

3801-2301 (6102)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$836.45

Value

$820

PnL

-$16.45

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$480

Value

$485

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5353-4694 (10047)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$237.5

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$5

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$243.48

Value

$238.71

PnL

-$4.77

Record

50%

1083-1075 (2158)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.93

Value

$69.17

PnL

+$0.09

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14

Value

$14.55

PnL

+$0.55

Record

56%

6726-5390 (12116)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.