Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 54¢ · $747 held · ends Oct 26

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$746.7

Combined PnL

$21.11

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 54¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$517.79

Total Shares1,037

Combined PnL+$7.64

Under3 traders

Total Value$228.91

Total Shares430

Combined PnL+$13.48

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 48.8¢	$507.75	$515.32	+$7.56	54% 15474-12956 (28430)
RN1CTR	Underavg 46¢	$115	$126.25	+$11.25	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$86.77	$87.66	+$0.89	56% 24547-18914 (43461)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$13.66	$14.99	+$1.34	62% 3895-2356 (6251)
MO mooseborzoii<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.48	+$0.08	50% 1083-1075 (2158)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$507.75

Value

$515.32

PnL

+$7.56

Record

54%

15474-12956 (28430)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$115

Value

$126.25

PnL

+$11.25

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$86.77

Value

$87.66

PnL

+$0.89

Record

56%

24547-18914 (43461)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.66

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$1.34

Record

62%

3895-2356 (6251)

mooseborzoii<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

1083-1075 (2158)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.