Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 51¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
2 arb excluded
$7.2K
$6.18
51¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 48.9¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | +$16.11 | 55% 14758-12309 (27067) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48.9¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$26.99 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$43.1 | |
 RollAwayTheDew | Underavg 51¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$12.62 | 53% 265-239 (504) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $490 | $485 | -$5 | 54% 5135-4443 (9578) |
KK kkpay19888CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $385.63 | $381.7 | -$3.94 | 53% 499-436 (935) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $242.5 | $125 | +$2.5 | 58% 37023-26943 (63966) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 52.8¢ | $74.8 | $73.5 | -$1.3 | 57% 23972-18438 (42410) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52.8¢ | $43.26 | $41 | -$2.26 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48.5¢ | $31.54 | $32.5 | +$0.96 | |
HI hi774c<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $29 | $29 | +$0 | 52% 4539-4208 (8747) |
Invested
$4,791.73
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$16.11
Record
55%
14758-12309 (27067)
Both legs:
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$1,286.9
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$12.62
Record
53%
265-239 (504)
Invested
$490
Value
$485
PnL
-$5
Record
54%
5135-4443 (9578)
Invested
$385.63
Value
$381.7
PnL
-$3.94
Record
53%
499-436 (935)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$242.5
Value
$125
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
37023-26943 (63966)
Invested
$74.8
Value
$73.5
PnL
-$1.3
Record
57%
23972-18438 (42410)
Both legs:
Invested
$29
Value
$29
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
4539-4208 (8747)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.