Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$1.8K
-$64.1
48.9¢ → 46.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 48.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$57.2 | 55% 12853-10588 (23441) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 48.4¢ | $297.54 | $118.91 | -$8.82 | 58% 34591-25199 (59790) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 49.1¢ | $51.21 | $52.54 | +$1.33 | 56% 21078-16865 (37943) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.67 | $3.04 | +$0.37 | 55% 6546-5254 (11800) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.68 | +$0.23 | 51% 4547-4285 (8832) |
Invested
$1,681.58
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$57.2
Record
55%
12853-10588 (23441)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$297.54
Value
$118.91
PnL
-$8.82
Record
58%
34591-25199 (59790)
Invested
$51.21
Value
$52.54
PnL
+$1.33
Record
56%
21078-16865 (37943)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$2.67
Value
$3.04
PnL
+$0.37
Record
55%
6546-5254 (11800)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.68
PnL
+$0.23
Record
51%
4547-4285 (8832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.