Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (78%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 233.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 22¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 29%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$12.38
46.7¢ → 22¢
-53% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 42.2¢ | $314.64 | $301.77 | -$12.87 | 54% 3607-3130 (6737) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 45.9¢ | $246.9 | $284.86 | +$37.97 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 45.8¢ | $136.72 | $144.66 | +$7.94 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Overavg 54.9¢ | $130.23 | $134.24 | +$4.01 | 53% 9987-8708 (18695) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 40¢ | $51.2 | $78.08 | +$26.88 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54.9¢ | $79.03 | $56.16 | -$22.87 | |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Overavg 60¢ | $148.83 | $127.75 | -$21.08 | 62% 3928-2392 (6320) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $26.09 | $25.83 | -$0.26 | 56% 2433-1896 (4329) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $24.25 | $24.72 | +$0.47 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $0.83 | $1.03 | +$0.2 | 56% 11046-8595 (19641) |
Invested
$314.64
Value
$301.77
PnL
-$12.87
Record
54%
3607-3130 (6737)
Invested
$246.9
Value
$284.86
PnL
+$37.97
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
VeryLucky888Invested
$136.72
Value
$144.66
PnL
+$7.94
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
Invested
$130.23
Value
$134.24
PnL
+$4.01
Record
53%
9987-8708 (18695)
Both legs:
Invested
$148.83
Value
$127.75
PnL
-$21.08
Record
62%
3928-2392 (6320)
Invested
$26.09
Value
$25.83
PnL
-$0.26
Record
56%
2433-1896 (4329)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$24.25
Value
$24.72
PnL
+$0.47
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Invested
$0.83
Value
$1.03
PnL
+$0.2
Record
56%
11046-8595 (19641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.