Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 231.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 74¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 43%
1 arb excluded
$7.6K
$94.3
55¢ → 73.5¢
+34% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 74%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA SadSquid54333 | Underavg 55.4¢ | $3.5K | $3.4K | -$54.36 | 61% 154-97 (251) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$120.04 | 48% 413-442 (855) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$92.49 | 56% 2433-1896 (4329) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44¢ | $880 | $910 | +$30 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.2¢ | $722.91 | $785.4 | +$62.49 | |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 52.7¢ | $344.39 | $362.8 | +$18.41 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 49.4¢ | $111.06 | $97.88 | -$13.19 | 53% 9987-8708 (18695) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 50.3¢ | $31.44 | $46.25 | +$14.81 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $23.09 | $32.11 | +$9.02 | 54% 3607-3130 (6737) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $2.23 | $1.79 | -$0.44 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
Invested
$3,482.95
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$54.36
Record
61%
154-97 (251)
Invested
$1,858.75
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$120.04
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
Invested
$1,602.91
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$92.49
Record
56%
2433-1896 (4329)
Both legs:
Invested
$344.39
Value
$362.8
PnL
+$18.41
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Invested
$111.06
Value
$97.88
PnL
-$13.19
Record
53%
9987-8708 (18695)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$31.44
Value
$46.25
PnL
+$14.81
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Invested
$23.09
Value
$32.11
PnL
+$9.02
Record
54%
3607-3130 (6737)
Invested
$2.23
Value
$1.79
PnL
-$0.44
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.