Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (64%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 229.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 36¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 26

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

-$110.46

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 36¢

-27% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares14,457

Combined PnL-$6.77

Over4 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares15,312

Combined PnL-$103.69

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Underavg 50¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$0	52% 5657-5205 (10862)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 50¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	-$58.77	48% 413-442 (855)
latvian.demon	Underavg 50.6¢	$546	$539.22	-$6.78	54% 596-512 (1108)
OU outloudmCTR	Overavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	59% 61-42 (103)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48¢	$379.72	$376.17	-$3.55	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 41.7¢	$304.53	$263.16	-$41.37	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 50¢	$8	$8	+$0	63% 7864-4668 (12532)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 60.5¢	$5.16	$5.22	+$0.06	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.5	-$0.05	53% 6073-5290 (11363)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$6,675.79

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

5657-5205 (10862)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$6,680.89

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$58.77

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$546

Value

$539.22

PnL

-$6.78

Record

54%

596-512 (1108)

outloudmCTR

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

61-42 (103)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$379.72

Value

$376.17

PnL

-$3.55

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$304.53

Value

$263.16

PnL

-$41.37

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

7864-4668 (12532)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

6073-5290 (11363)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.