Spread: Heat (-9.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (83%) · Mavericks at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

Heat46¢Mavericks54¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 83%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$40.75

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Heat46%

Mavericks55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,043

Combined PnL+$40.43

Heat1 trader

Total Value$13.14

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$0.32

Mavericks — 83%Heat — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Mavericksavg 54¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$25.13	47% 2254-2506 (4760)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Mavericksavg 54¢	$540	$550	+$10	53% 5236-4559 (9795)
VeryLucky888	Mavericksavg 54¢	$272.2	$277.25	+$5.05	58% 37543-27331 (64874)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Heatavg 44.4¢	$12.81	$13.14	+$0.32	57% 24505-18852 (43357)
0xheavy888<$100	Mavericksavg 54¢	$10.8	$11	+$0.2	56% 6694-5364 (12058)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Mavericksavg 54¢	$5.4	$5.45	+$0.05	54% 15456-12940 (28396)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Mavericks

Invested

$1,357.11

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$25.13

Record

47%

2254-2506 (4760)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Mavericks

Invested

$540

Value

$550

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

5236-4559 (9795)

VeryLucky888

Mavericks

Invested

$272.2

Value

$277.25

PnL

+$5.05

Record

58%

37543-27331 (64874)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$12.81

Value

$13.14

PnL

+$0.32

Record

57%

24505-18852 (43357)

0xheavy888<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$10.8

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

6694-5364 (12058)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

15456-12940 (28396)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.