Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Mavericks (51%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Heat (-8.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (29%) · Heat at 49¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 26

Heat49¢Mavericks51¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$362.27

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 49¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Heat49%

Mavericks51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat2 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares15,832

Combined PnL+$400.24

Mavericks5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,098

Combined PnL-$37.97

Heat — 29%Mavericks — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4CTR	Heatavg 47¢	$6.3K	$6.7K	+$404.03	49% 1041-1103 (2144)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Heatavg 48.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$3.79	62% 3889-2347 (6236)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Mavericksavg 52¢	$520	$500	-$20	53% 5236-4559 (9795)
VeryLucky888	Mavericksavg 52.6¢	$308.23	$281.14	-$6.87	58% 37543-27331 (64874)
TO tomb2456	Mavericksavg 53¢	$149.46	$141	-$8.46	50% 262-264 (526)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Heatavg 48.6¢	$112.72	$112.44	-$0.29	57% 24505-18852 (43357)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 48.6¢	$58.84	$57.47	-$1.36
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 51.5¢	$53.89	$54.96	+$1.08
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Mavericksavg 50.3¢	$83.54	$82.99	-$0.55	54% 15456-12940 (28396)
BA Bayupati<$100	Mavericksavg 52¢	$54.31	$52.22	-$2.09	50% 174-172 (346)

forecastication4CTR

Heat

Invested

$6,329.77

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$404.03

Record

49%

1041-1103 (2144)

SunlineTickerCTR

Heat

Invested

$1,150.66

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$3.79

Record

62%

3889-2347 (6236)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Mavericks

Invested

$520

Value

$500

PnL

-$20

Record

53%

5236-4559 (9795)

VeryLucky888

Mavericks

Invested

$308.23

Value

$281.14

PnL

-$6.87

Record

58%

37543-27331 (64874)

tomb2456

Mavericks

Invested

$149.46

Value

$141

PnL

-$8.46

Record

50%

262-264 (526)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$112.72

Value

$112.44

PnL

-$0.29

Record

57%

24505-18852 (43357)

Both legs:

Heat$58.8448.6¢-$1.36

Mavericks$53.8951.5¢+$1.08

HomeRunHazard<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$83.54

Value

$82.99

PnL

-$0.55

Record

54%

15456-12940 (28396)

Bayupati<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$54.31

Value

$52.22

PnL

-$2.09

Record

50%

174-172 (346)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.