Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Heat (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Heat (-7.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (80%) · Mavericks at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26

Heat55¢Mavericks45¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 80%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$143.85

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 45.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Heat55%

Mavericks46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,865

Combined PnL+$143.37

Heat1 trader

Total Value$47.88

Total Shares46

Combined PnL+$0.48

Mavericks — 80%Heat — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Mavericksavg 44¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$85.93	55% 13345-10964 (24309)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Mavericksavg 44¢	$865.43	$924.43	+$59.01	47% 2172-2402 (4574)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Heatavg 52¢	$47.4	$47.88	+$0.48	56% 21200-16956 (38156)
VeryLucky888CTR	Mavericksavg 45.6¢	$598.17	$36.44	-$2.43	58% 34781-25357 (60138)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 45¢	$19.44	$20.3	+$0.86	55% 1971-1584 (3555)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$1,614.39

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$85.93

Record

55%

13345-10964 (24309)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$865.43

Value

$924.43

PnL

+$59.01

Record

47%

2172-2402 (4574)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Heat

Invested

$47.4

Value

$47.88

PnL

+$0.48

Record

56%

21200-16956 (38156)

VeryLucky888CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$598.17

Value

$36.44

PnL

-$2.43

Record

58%

34781-25357 (60138)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$19.44

Value

$20.3

PnL

+$0.86

Record

55%

1971-1584 (3555)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.