Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Heat (55%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Heat (-6.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (50%) · Mavericks at 45¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Mavericks
6
Mavericks 50%
$3.8K
$71.23
41.6¢ → 45¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMavericks at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Mavericksavg 41.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$104.73 | 54% 15474-12956 (28430) |
AR ArielFilipino | Heatavg 57.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$26.36 | 61% 91-58 (149) |
 RN1 | Heatavg 56.6¢ | $174.97 | $169.97 | -$5 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
AM AmericaFirst1<$100 | Heatavg 58¢ | $69.11 | $67.32 | -$1.79 | 62% 2124-1306 (3430) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 43.3¢ | $50.05 | $50.05 | +$0 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 44¢ | $31.02 | $30.67 | -$0.35 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
Invested
$1,972.39
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$104.73
Record
54%
15474-12956 (28430)
Invested
$1,382.36
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$26.36
Record
61%
91-58 (149)
RN1Invested
$174.97
Value
$169.97
PnL
-$5
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Invested
$69.11
Value
$67.32
PnL
-$1.79
Record
62%
2124-1306 (3430)
Invested
$50.05
Value
$50.05
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$31.02
Value
$30.67
PnL
-$0.35
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.