Spread: Heat (-5.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (75%) · Heat at 59¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Heat
4
Heat 75%
1 arb excluded
$4.6K
$5.13
59¢ → 58.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidHeat at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Heatavg 59¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | -$11.89 | 54% 15474-12956 (28430) |
| └ Heat leg | Heatavg 59¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$0.1 | |
| └ Mavericks leg | Mavericksavg 41.6¢ | $869.6 | $857.81 | -$11.79 | |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Heatavg 59¢ | $590 | $595 | +$5 | 53% 5255-4588 (9843) |
 RN1 | Heatavg 59¢ | $147.5 | $148.75 | +$1.25 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
 HRTradingCTR | Mavericksavg 42¢ | $102.24 | $101.06 | -$1.19 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Heatavg 59¢ | $8.26 | $8.33 | +$0.07 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
Invested
$3,719.75
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$11.89
Record
54%
15474-12956 (28430)
Both legs:
Invested
$590
Value
$595
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5255-4588 (9843)
RN1Invested
$147.5
Value
$148.75
PnL
+$1.25
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$102.24
Value
$101.06
PnL
-$1.19
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
Invested
$8.26
Value
$8.33
PnL
+$0.07
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.