Spread: Heat (-10.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (50%) · Mavericks at 68¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Heat33¢Mavericks67¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$13.07

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 67.5¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Heat33%

Mavericks68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,431

Combined PnL-$16.33

Heat3 traders

Total Value$77.84

Total Shares188

Combined PnL+$3.26

Mavericks — 50%Heat — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Mavericksavg 55.4¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$206.54	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 55.4¢	$1.1K	$898.46	-$232.65
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 54.3¢	$859.6	$885.7	+$26.11
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 45.2¢	$968.74	$996.16	+$27.42	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 45.2¢	$619.29	$636.4	+$17.11
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 52¢	$349.44	$359.76	+$10.31
TO tomb2456	Mavericksavg 59¢	$885	$870	-$15	50% 262-266 (528)
TA takeormake	Mavericksavg 68¢	$543.5	$530.39	-$13.11	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
JU justaluckydude	Mavericksavg 56.1¢	$135.84	$147.62	+$11.78	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Heatavg 40.7¢	$63.03	$65.02	+$1.99	52% 270-246 (516)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Heatavg 32¢	$8.56	$9.63	+$1.07	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Heatavg 45¢	$2.99	$3.19	+$0.2	48% 413-442 (855)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1,990.7

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$206.54

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Mavericks$1,131.155.4¢-$232.65

Heat$859.654.3¢+$26.11

Anon455ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$968.74

Value

$996.16

PnL

+$27.42

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Mavericks$619.2945.2¢+$17.11

Heat$349.4452¢+$10.31

tomb2456

Mavericks

Invested

$885

Value

$870

PnL

-$15

Record

50%

262-266 (528)

takeormake

Mavericks

Invested

$543.5

Value

$530.39

PnL

-$13.11

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

justaluckydude

Mavericks

Invested

$135.84

Value

$147.62

PnL

+$11.78

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$63.03

Value

$65.02

PnL

+$1.99

Record

52%

270-246 (516)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$8.56

Value

$9.63

PnL

+$1.07

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$2.99

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.