Mavericks vs. Heat
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (100%) · Heat at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Heat
4
Heat 100%
$1.4K
$10.69
72.9¢ → 73¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidHeat at 73%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Heatavg 73¢ | $1.9K | $1.3K | +$8.57 | 58% 32272-23432 (55704) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Heatavg 70¢ | $45.05 | $46.98 | +$2.25 | 65% 1555-832 (2387) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Heatavg 73.7¢ | $32.38 | $32.25 | -$0.13 | 54% 14075-11776 (25851) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Heatavg 73¢ | $14.6 | $14.6 | +$0 | 56% 6426-5142 (11568) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,939.53
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$8.57
Record
58%
32272-23432 (55704)
Invested
$45.05
Value
$46.98
PnL
+$2.25
Record
65%
1555-832 (2387)
Invested
$32.38
Value
$32.25
PnL
-$0.13
Record
54%
14075-11776 (25851)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$14.6
Value
$14.6
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
6426-5142 (11568)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.