Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (69%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 237.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 32¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 26

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

-$597.29

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 31.5¢

-37% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,796

Combined PnL-$94.57

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,659

Combined PnL-$502.73

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$139.27	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.8¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$225.51
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.2¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$86.24
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$116.41	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$831.66	$1.1K	+$248.01
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$441.48	$284.42	-$131.6
GA gagarin59	Underavg 54¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$97.88	53% 597-533 (1130)
NooseracCTR	Overavg 53¢	$1.0K	$823.91	-$215.79	52% 5657-5205 (10862)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 50.8¢	$959.14	$651.05	-$308.09	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 46¢	$257.65	$280.06	+$22.4	48% 413-442 (855)
hammyandcheese	Underavg 42¢	$102.06	$99.63	-$2.43	58% 340-251 (591)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$85	$83.75	-$1.25	52% 5780-5396 (11176)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 53¢	$34.47	$42.3	+$7.83	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 56¢	$21.28	$19.19	-$2.09	53% 9987-8708 (18695)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,823.84

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$139.27

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Over$2,301.2447.8¢+$225.51

Under$2,522.6149.2¢-$86.24

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,273.14

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$116.41

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Under$831.6651.2¢+$248.01

Over$441.4852¢-$131.6

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$1,323.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$97.88

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

NooseracCTR

Over

Invested

$1,039.7

Value

$823.91

PnL

-$215.79

Record

52%

5657-5205 (10862)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$959.14

Value

$651.05

PnL

-$308.09

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$257.65

Value

$280.06

PnL

+$22.4

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

hammyandcheese

Under

Invested

$102.06

Value

$99.63

PnL

-$2.43

Record

58%

340-251 (591)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$85

Value

$83.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

52%

5780-5396 (11176)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$34.47

Value

$42.3

PnL

+$7.83

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$21.28

Value

$19.19

PnL

-$2.09

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.