Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (67%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 236.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 33¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$173.02
47.6¢ → 33¢
-31% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 33%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 53.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$80.78 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53.3¢ | $765.85 | $603.35 | -$162.5 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.1¢ | $518 | $599.72 | +$81.72 | |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $784.37 | $947.32 | +$162.95 | 54% 3607-3130 (6737) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $45.45 | $54.04 | +$8.59 | 53% 9987-8708 (18695) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $50.29 | $48.49 | -$1.8 | 52% 270-246 (516) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $26.23 | $28.06 | +$1.83 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 43.3¢ | $13.46 | $14.28 | +$0.82 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $9.03 | $9.66 | +$0.63 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
Invested
$1,283.85
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$80.78
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Both legs:
Invested
$784.37
Value
$947.32
PnL
+$162.95
Record
54%
3607-3130 (6737)
Invested
$45.45
Value
$54.04
PnL
+$8.59
Record
53%
9987-8708 (18695)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$50.29
Value
$48.49
PnL
-$1.8
Record
52%
270-246 (516)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$26.23
Value
$28.06
PnL
+$1.83
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
Invested
$13.46
Value
$14.28
PnL
+$0.82
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.03
Value
$9.66
PnL
+$0.63
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.