Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (61%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 235.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 39¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 26

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$103.08

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 39¢

-25% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,922

Combined PnL+$71.21

Under6 traders

Total Value$742.37

Total Shares1,266

Combined PnL+$31.87

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$5.3K	$4.9K	-$439.56	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$4.2K	$3.4K	-$704.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$264.69
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 53.2¢	$888.73	$961.19	+$72.46	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
AN Anon455	Underavg 56.1¢	$538.11	$571.23	+$33.22	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 48.2¢	$122.82	$119.1	-$3.72	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
RN1CTR	Overavg 45¢	$112.5	$110	-$1.25	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 53.6¢	$46.92	$47.27	+$0.58	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.6¢	$25.18	$25.85	+$0.91
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.7¢	$21.74	$21.42	-$0.32
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 50¢	$26.03	$26.29	+$0.26	49% 18204-18601 (36805)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 46¢	$8.52	$9.72	+$1.2	48% 413-442 (855)
MI mishipolis<$100	Underavg 44¢	$12.06	$9.62	+$1.86	50% 4340-4263 (8603)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 49.6¢	$7.36	$6.4	-$0.96	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,332.01

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$439.56

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Under$4,153.9651.2¢-$704.25

Over$1,178.0547¢+$264.69

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$888.73

Value

$961.19

PnL

+$72.46

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$538.11

Value

$571.23

PnL

+$33.22

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$122.82

Value

$119.1

PnL

-$3.72

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$112.5

Value

$110

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$46.92

Value

$47.27

PnL

+$0.58

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Both legs:

Under$25.1853.6¢+$0.91

Over$21.7444.7¢-$0.32

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$26.03

Value

$26.29

PnL

+$0.26

Record

49%

18204-18601 (36805)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$8.52

Value

$9.72

PnL

+$1.2

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

mishipolis<$100

Under

Invested

$12.06

Value

$9.62

PnL

+$1.86

Record

50%

4340-4263 (8603)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$7.36

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$0.96

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.