Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 234.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 50¢ · $414 held · ends Oct 26

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$414.13

Combined PnL

$3.92

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 50¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$366.63

Total Shares733

Combined PnL+$5.36

Under2 traders

Total Value$47.5

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$1.44

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 48.2¢	$346.32	$359.03	+$12.71	55% 12487-10261 (22748)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 51.8¢	$46.16	$45	-$1.49	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 49¢	$264.95	$7.61	-$7.35	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.5	+$0.05	51% 4293-4089 (8382)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$346.32

Value

$359.03

PnL

+$12.71

Record

55%

12487-10261 (22748)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$46.16

Value

$45

PnL

-$1.49

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$264.95

Value

$7.61

PnL

-$7.35

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

4293-4089 (8382)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.