Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 49¢ · $134 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 67%
$134.19
$0.22
Research grade
AvoidOver at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $78.59 | $77.02 | -$1.57 | 58% 37320-27172 (64492) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $37.92 | $40.69 | +$2.77 | 50% 174-171 (345) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 51.3¢ | $17.46 | $16.49 | -$0.97 | 57% 24224-18647 (42871) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.