Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 48¢ · $924 held · ends Oct 26

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$924.41

Combined PnL

$3.55

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 48¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$759.57

Total Shares1,604

Combined PnL+$9.97

Over1 trader

Total Value$164.84

Total Shares314

Combined PnL-$6.43

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$675.73	$687.68	+$11.94	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 52.8¢	$400.77	$164.84	-$6.43	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$52.57	$52.57	-$1.14	51% 170-164 (334)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 47.4¢	$15.18	$14.72	-$0.78	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.6	-$0.05	55% 6546-5254 (11800)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$675.73

Value

$687.68

PnL

+$11.94

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$400.77

Value

$164.84

PnL

-$6.43

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.57

Value

$52.57

PnL

-$1.14

Record

51%

170-164 (334)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.18

Value

$14.72

PnL

-$0.78

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$0.05

Record

55%

6546-5254 (11800)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.