Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 45¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 26

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

$128.11

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 44.5¢

-8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares11,592

Combined PnL-$133.31

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,572

Combined PnL+$261.42

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 51.4¢	$8.9K	$8.6K	-$263.79	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.4¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$157.78
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.7¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$106.01
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 49.3¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$63.85	53% 597-533 (1130)
TA takeormake	Overavg 50.1¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$262.9	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.0K	$819.7	-$212.66	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 48.3¢	$640.52	$628.57	-$11.95	48% 413-442 (855)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$292.93	$358.91	+$65.98
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.3¢	$347.59	$269.67	-$77.93
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$19.03	$22.12	+$3.1	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
balthazarCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$7.6	$20	+$12.4	62% 20089-12550 (32639)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 54¢	$15.66	$14.5	-$1.16	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 54¢	$4.32	$4	-$0.32	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$8,907.9

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$263.79

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Over$5,610.2751.4¢-$157.78

Under$3,297.6351.7¢-$106.01

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$4,673.84

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$63.85

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$1,270.76

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$262.9

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

justaluckydudeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,032.36

Value

$819.7

PnL

-$212.66

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$640.52

Value

$628.57

PnL

-$11.95

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

Both legs:

Over$292.9351¢+$65.98

Under$347.5948.3¢-$77.93

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.03

Value

$22.12

PnL

+$3.1

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

balthazarCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.6

Value

$20

PnL

+$12.4

Record

62%

20089-12550 (32639)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$15.66

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$1.16

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$4.32

Value

PnL

-$0.32

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.