Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 42¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 26

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.8K

Combined PnL

$601.27

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 41.5¢

-11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares8,263

Combined PnL+$645.56

Under6 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares12,870

Combined PnL-$44.29

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 52.5¢	$5.2K	$5.0K	-$145.22	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.5¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	-$175.9
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$30.67
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 54¢	$4.1K	$4.6K	+$505.97	48% 413-442 (855)
TO torta.techCTR	Underavg 46¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$247.68	63% 7864-4668 (12532)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$341.61	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$987.82	$1.3K	+$291.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 32¢	$815.17	$865.36	+$50.19
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$31.65	53% 597-533 (1130)
NooseracCTR	Underavg 46¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$332.67	52% 5657-5205 (10862)
TA takeormake	Overavg 52.1¢	$741.96	$861.52	+$119.56	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
tradecraft	Overavg 52.1¢	$134.75	$156.38	+$21.63	52% 5780-5396 (11176)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR	Underavg 46¢	$100.05	$108.8	+$8.75	53% 6073-5290 (11363)
balthazar<$100	Overavg 68¢	$27.2	$25.6	-$1.6	62% 20089-12550 (32639)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$8.17	$9.5	+$1.33	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 41.2¢	$3.81	$2.78	-$1.03	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,178.57

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$145.22

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Over$3,721.8252.5¢-$175.9

Under$1,456.7649¢+$30.67

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$4,088.96

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$505.97

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

torta.techCTR

Under

Invested

$2,838.32

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$247.68

Record

63%

7864-4668 (12532)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,802.99

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$341.61

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Over$987.8251¢+$291.42

Under$815.1732¢+$50.19

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$1,531

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$31.65

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

NooseracCTR

Under

Invested

$1,530.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$332.67

Record

52%

5657-5205 (10862)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$741.96

Value

$861.52

PnL

+$119.56

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

tradecraft

Over

Invested

$134.75

Value

$156.38

PnL

+$21.63

Record

52%

5780-5396 (11176)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR

Under

Invested

$100.05

Value

$108.8

PnL

+$8.75

Record

53%

6073-5290 (11363)

balthazar<$100

Over

Invested

$27.2

Value

$25.6

PnL

-$1.6

Record

62%

20089-12550 (32639)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.17

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$1.33

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.81

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$1.03

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.