Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (65%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 36¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26

Over65¢Under35¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$414.8

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 35.5¢

-21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,309

Combined PnL+$96.23

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,060

Combined PnL+$318.57

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$102.85	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$154.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$470.3	$522.09	+$51.79
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$147.51	53% 597-533 (1130)
TA takeormake	Overavg 55¢	$876	$1.1K	+$238.7	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 54.4¢	$207.11	$289.56	+$82.45	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 45¢	$168.33	$117.06	-$51.27	48% 413-442 (855)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 72¢	$37.44	$36.66	-$0.78	59% 29411-20147 (49558)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 67.6¢	$15.72	$15.88	+$0.16	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 62¢	$6.82	$5.5	-$1.32	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 59¢	$4.21	$3.57	-$0.64	56% 2433-1896 (4329)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,171.31

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$102.85

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Over$1,70155¢-$154.64

Under$470.345¢+$51.79

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$1,328.48

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$147.51

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$876

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$238.7

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$207.11

Value

$289.56

PnL

+$82.45

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$168.33

Value

$117.06

PnL

-$51.27

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$37.44

Value

$36.66

PnL

-$0.78

Record

59%

29411-20147 (49558)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$15.72

Value

$15.88

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$6.82

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$1.32

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$4.21

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$0.64

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.