Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Bulls (82%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Celtics (-23.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (40%) · Celtics at 18¢ · $220 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
5
Celtics 40%
$219.98
$11.14
25.8¢ → 18¢
-30% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2CTR | Celticsavg 26¢ | $158.34 | $161.39 | +$3.05 | 50% 6607-6589 (13196) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Bullsavg 59¢ | $29.5 | $36.75 | +$7.25 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Bullsavg 74¢ | $9.62 | $9.56 | -$0.06 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Bullsavg 76¢ | $7.8 | $7.54 | -$0.26 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 20¢ | $3.58 | $4.75 | +$1.16 | 61% 8819-5730 (14549) |
Invested
$158.34
Value
$161.39
PnL
+$3.05
Record
50%
6607-6589 (13196)
Invested
$29.5
Value
$36.75
PnL
+$7.25
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Invested
$9.62
Value
$9.56
PnL
-$0.06
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.8
Value
$7.54
PnL
-$0.26
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$3.58
Value
$4.75
PnL
+$1.16
Record
61%
8819-5730 (14549)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.