Spread: Celtics (-21.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (33%) · Bulls at 76¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 26

Celtics24¢Bulls76¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$718.75

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 76¢

+43% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

2 of 6 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics24%

Bulls76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,396

Combined PnL+$740.12

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$64.52

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$21.37

Bulls — 33%Celtics — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Bullsavg 57.7¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$124.05	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 57.7¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$282.89
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 46.2¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$406.95
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 53¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$738.32	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Bullsavg 58.8¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$13.02	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 58.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$55.49
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 41.3¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$68.51
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Celticsavg 35.7¢	$549.42	$485.42	-$64	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 35.7¢	$343.5	$283.79	-$59.71
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 72¢	$205.92	$201.63	-$4.29
poshposhCTR<$100	Celticsavg 34¢	$51	$38.25	-$12.75	61% 8819-5730 (14549)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Bullsavg 70¢	$28	$29.8	+$1.8	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Celticsavg 30¢	$20.1	$17.09	-$3.02	50% 6607-6589 (13196)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Celticsavg 41.5¢	$12.45	$7.65	-$4.8	57% 12531-9470 (22001)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Celticsavg 39¢	$2.34	$1.53	-$0.81	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$5,141.34

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$124.05

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Bulls$3,106.3457.7¢+$282.89

Celtics$2,03546.2¢-$406.95

justaluckydude

Bulls

Invested

$1,778.68

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$738.32

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

Anon455ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2,198.79

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$13.02

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Bulls$1,169.8558.8¢-$55.49

Celtics$1,028.9441.3¢+$68.51

takeormakeARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$549.42

Value

$485.42

PnL

-$64

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

Both legs:

Celtics$343.535.7¢-$59.71

Bulls$205.9272¢-$4.29

poshposhCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$51

Value

$38.25

PnL

-$12.75

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Bulls

Invested

$28

Value

$29.8

PnL

+$1.8

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$20.1

Value

$17.09

PnL

-$3.02

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$12.45

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$4.8

Record

57%

12531-9470 (22001)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2.34

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$0.81

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

2 of 6 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.