Spread: Celtics (-19.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (50%) · Bulls at 69¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 26

Celtics31¢Bulls69¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 69¢

+37% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics31%

Bulls69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls3 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares7,162

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Celtics3 traders

Total Value$48.05

Total Shares135

Combined PnL-$11.02

Bulls — 50%Celtics — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Celticsavg 48.9¢	$6.0K	$5.5K	-$487.93	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 48.9¢	$4.7K	$4.3K	-$469.74
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 56.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$18.19
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 49¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$715.95	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
Nooserac	Bullsavg 51.9¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$477.92	52% 5657-5205 (10862)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Celticsavg 46.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$190.78	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 46.5¢	$1.0K	$756.63	-$262.99
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 49.4¢	$221.35	$293.56	+$72.2
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Bullsavg 63.9¢	$506	$498.63	-$7.37	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 63.9¢	$317.05	$314.96	-$2.09
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 37.5¢	$188.95	$183.67	-$5.28
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Celticsavg 44¢	$54.56	$42.78	-$11.78	48% 413-442 (855)
HRTrading<$100	Bullsavg 60.6¢	$6.97	$7.3	+$0.33	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Celticsavg 48¢	$2.76	$2.82	+$0.06	57% 12531-9470 (22001)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Celticsavg 35¢	$1.75	$2.45	+$0.7	50% 6607-6589 (13196)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$6,008.9

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$487.93

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Celtics$4,727.8248.9¢-$469.74

Bulls$1,281.0756.8¢-$18.19

justaluckydude

Bulls

Invested

$1,812.83

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$715.95

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

Nooserac

Bulls

Invested

$1,826.18

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$477.92

Record

52%

5657-5205 (10862)

Anon455ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1,240.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$190.78

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Celtics$1,019.6146.5¢-$262.99

Bulls$221.3549.4¢+$72.2

takeormakeARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$506

Value

$498.63

PnL

-$7.37

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

Both legs:

Bulls$317.0563.9¢-$2.09

Celtics$188.9537.5¢-$5.28

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$54.56

Value

$42.78

PnL

-$11.78

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

HRTrading<$100

Bulls

Invested

$6.97

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$0.33

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

12531-9470 (22001)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1.75

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.7

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.