Spread: Celtics (-17.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (60%) · Bulls at 62¢ · $25K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
5
Bulls 60%
3 arb excluded
$24.6K
$1.3K
47.9¢ → 62¢
+29% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 62%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Celticsavg 50.2¢ | $13.1K | $12.3K | -$841.19 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 54.2¢ | $5.7K | $6.3K | +$513.1 | |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 50.2¢ | $7.4K | $6.0K | $-1.4K | |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Bullsavg 55¢ | $4.1K | $3.8K | -$248.89 | 56% 2433-1896 (4329) |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 55¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$149.96 | |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 51.2¢ | $2.0K | $1.6K | -$398.85 | |
 Nooserac | Bullsavg 52.9¢ | $3.3K | $3.7K | +$351.09 | 52% 5657-5205 (10862) |
JU justaluckydude | Bullsavg 40¢ | $1.6K | $2.5K | +$875.21 | 53% 9987-8708 (18695) |
GA gagarin59CTR | Celticsavg 40¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$33.02 | 53% 597-533 (1130) |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Bullsavg 56.7¢ | $966.18 | $950.8 | -$15.38 | 54% 3607-3130 (6737) |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 56.7¢ | $544.45 | $585.59 | +$41.14 | |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 45¢ | $421.73 | $365.22 | -$56.52 | |
RL RLWG<$100 | Bullsavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $6.2 | +$1.3 | 50% 7452-7495 (14947) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 41¢ | $2.06 | $2.05 | -$0 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
Invested
$13,106.07
Value
$12.3K
PnL
-$841.19
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Both legs:
Invested
$4,082.04
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$248.89
Record
56%
2433-1896 (4329)
Both legs:
NooseracInvested
$3,346.27
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$351.09
Record
52%
5657-5205 (10862)
Invested
$1,635.33
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$875.21
Record
53%
9987-8708 (18695)
Invested
$1,320.67
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$33.02
Record
53%
597-533 (1130)
Invested
$966.18
Value
$950.8
PnL
-$15.38
Record
54%
3607-3130 (6737)
Both legs:
Invested
$4.9
Value
$6.2
PnL
+$1.3
Record
50%
7452-7495 (14947)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.06
Value
$2.05
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.