Spread: Celtics (-16.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (75%) · Bulls at 59¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
4
Bulls 75%
$4.5K
-$37.31
58.1¢ → 59¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Bullsavg 58¢ | $3.8K | $3.8K | -$33.45 | 54% 15456-12940 (28396) |
 VeryLucky888 | Bullsavg 58.5¢ | $642.99 | $637.99 | -$5 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 41.8¢ | $49.27 | $48.38 | +$0.88 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Bullsavg 58¢ | $20.88 | $21.07 | +$0.26 | 57% 24505-18852 (43357) |
Invested
$3,769.81
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$33.45
Record
54%
15456-12940 (28396)
VeryLucky888Invested
$642.99
Value
$637.99
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
37543-27331 (64874)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$49.27
Value
$48.38
PnL
+$0.88
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
Invested
$20.88
Value
$21.07
PnL
+$0.26
Record
57%
24505-18852 (43357)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.