Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Bulls (52%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-14.5)
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (50%) · Celtics at 48¢ · $155 held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
2
Celtics 50%
1 arb excluded
$155.48
-$2.28
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR | Celticsavg 50¢ | $152 | $73.72 | -$2.28 | 53% 340-298 (638) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Celticsavg 49¢ | $71.7 | $71.36 | -$0.34 | 57% 23971-18438 (42409) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 49¢ | $43.12 | $42.24 | -$0.88 | |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 51¢ | $28.58 | $29.12 | +$0.54 | |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Bullsavg 52¢ | $10.4 | $10.4 | -$0 | 56% 6645-5318 (11963) |
Invested
$152
Value
$73.72
PnL
-$2.28
Record
53%
340-298 (638)
Invested
$71.7
Value
$71.36
PnL
-$0.34
Record
57%
23971-18438 (42409)
Both legs:
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.4
Value
$10.4
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
6645-5318 (11963)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.