Spread: Celtics (-13.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (50%) · Celtics at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26

Celtics52¢Bulls48¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 50%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$18.83

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 52¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics52%

Bulls48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics2 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,507

Combined PnL+$23.83

Bulls2 traders

Total Value$242.4

Total Shares505

Combined PnL-$5

Celtics — 50%Bulls — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO DolphinBaller	Celticsavg 51¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$23.24	46% 67-78 (145)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bullsavg 49¢	$245	$240	-$5	58% 32272-23432 (55704)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Celticsavg 49¢	$18.13	$18.72	+$0.59	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Bullsavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	57% 4527-3354 (7881)

DolphinBaller

Celtics

Invested

$2,285.46

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$23.24

Record

46%

67-78 (145)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bulls

Invested

$245

Value

$240

PnL

-$5

Record

58%

32272-23432 (55704)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Celtics

Invested

$18.13

Value

$18.72

PnL

+$0.59

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

4527-3354 (7881)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.