Spread: Celtics (-12.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (50%) · Celtics at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26

Celtics56¢Bulls44¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 50%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$35.09

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 56.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics56%

Bulls44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics2 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,800

Combined PnL-$42

Bulls2 traders

Total Value$628.02

Total Shares1,427

Combined PnL+$6.91

Celtics — 50%Bulls — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forget4	Celticsavg 57¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$30	43% 668-877 (1545)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Bullsavg 43¢	$587.44	$594.27	+$6.83	63% 6058-3547 (9605)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Celticsavg 58¢	$464	$452	-$12	53% 351-311 (662)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Bullsavg 43.1¢	$33.67	$33.75	+$0.08	57% 26839-19987 (46826)

forget4

Celtics

Invested

$3,420

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$30

Record

43%

668-877 (1545)

Forecastication2CTR

Bulls

Invested

$587.44

Value

$594.27

PnL

+$6.83

Record

63%

6058-3547 (9605)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Celtics

Invested

$464

Value

$452

PnL

-$12

Record

53%

351-311 (662)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$33.67

Value

$33.75

PnL

+$0.08

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.