Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors Celtics (64%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Celtics (-11.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (40%) · Bulls at 37¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
5
Bulls 40%
2 arb excluded
$4.8K
-$184.83
42.3¢ → 36.5¢
-14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 37%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Bullsavg 41¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$26.7 | 53% 9987-8708 (18695) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Celticsavg 65¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$42.31 | 56% 2433-1896 (4329) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 65¢ | $975 | $1.0K | +$45 | |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 44¢ | $698.5 | $508 | -$87.31 | |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bullsavg 43.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$137.76 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Celticsavg 66.5¢ | $287.7 | $275.86 | -$11.84 | 54% 3607-3130 (6737) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 66.5¢ | $202.02 | $191.5 | -$10.52 | |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 37.6¢ | $85.68 | $84.36 | -$1.32 | |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF<$100 | Celticsavg 60¢ | $75.47 | $58.49 | -$16.98 | 53% 359-314 (673) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Celticsavg 56.2¢ | $43.51 | $46.98 | +$3.59 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Celticsavg 59.7¢ | $31.63 | $24.65 | -$6.99 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
Invested
$1,564.8
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$26.7
Record
53%
9987-8708 (18695)
Invested
$1,570.31
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$42.31
Record
56%
2433-1896 (4329)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,514.04
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$137.76
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Invested
$287.7
Value
$275.86
PnL
-$11.84
Record
54%
3607-3130 (6737)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.47
Value
$58.49
PnL
-$16.98
Record
53%
359-314 (673)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$43.51
Value
$46.98
PnL
+$3.59
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Invested
$31.63
Value
$24.65
PnL
-$6.99
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.