Spread: Celtics (-10.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (63%) · Celtics at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
8
Celtics 63%
$2.2K
-$1.71
59.4¢ → 68¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 68%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Celticsavg 59¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
AN Anon455CTR | Bullsavg 41¢ | $820 | $820 | +$0 | 56% 2433-1896 (4329) |
 RN1<$100 | Celticsavg 61¢ | $78.21 | $77.56 | -$0.64 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Celticsavg 62¢ | $79.36 | $77.44 | -$1.92 | 50% 6607-6589 (13196) |
AS astapzippoCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 38¢ | $48.64 | $50.56 | +$1.92 | 56% 2086-1620 (3706) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Celticsavg 75¢ | $11.25 | $9.08 | -$2.18 | 57% 12531-9470 (22001) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Celticsavg 67¢ | $8.04 | $7.8 | -$0.24 | 54% 3607-3130 (6737) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 27¢ | $2.9 | $4.24 | +$1.34 | 61% 8819-5730 (14549) |
Invested
$1,180
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Invested
$820
Value
$820
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2433-1896 (4329)
RN1<$100Invested
$78.21
Value
$77.56
PnL
-$0.64
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
Invested
$79.36
Value
$77.44
PnL
-$1.92
Record
50%
6607-6589 (13196)
Invested
$48.64
Value
$50.56
PnL
+$1.92
Record
56%
2086-1620 (3706)
Invested
$11.25
Value
$9.08
PnL
-$2.18
Record
57%
12531-9470 (22001)
Invested
$8.04
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$0.24
Record
54%
3607-3130 (6737)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.9
Value
$4.24
PnL
+$1.34
Record
61%
8819-5730 (14549)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.