Bulls vs. Celtics
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (60%) · Celtics at 86¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
5
Celtics 60%
$5.5K
-$41.05
85.7¢ → 85.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 86%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO DolphinBaller | Celticsavg 85¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | +$0.79 | 46% 69-81 (150) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Celticsavg 87.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$42.33 | 55% 12469-10246 (22715) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Bullsavg 15¢ | $563.49 | $563.49 | +$0 | 54% 1776-1492 (3268) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 15¢ | $13.65 | $13.65 | +$0.46 | 56% 1802-1398 (3200) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Celticsavg 85¢ | $6.8 | $6.8 | +$0.04 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
Invested
$3,711.85
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$0.79
Record
46%
69-81 (150)
Invested
$1,291.32
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$42.33
Record
55%
12469-10246 (22715)
Invested
$563.49
Value
$563.49
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
1776-1492 (3268)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.65
Value
$13.65
PnL
+$0.46
Record
56%
1802-1398 (3200)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$6.8
PnL
+$0.04
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.