Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 240.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 76¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 75%
2 arb excluded
$4.7K
$807.75
47.8¢ → 75.5¢
+58% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 76%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA gagarin59 | Underavg 47¢ | $1.5K | $2.3K | +$782.13 | 53% 597-533 (1130) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 52.2¢ | $2.3K | $1.5K | -$849.7 | 54% 16556-13890 (30446) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.2¢ | $2.1K | $1.2K | -$920.94 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54.2¢ | $230.22 | $301.47 | +$71.24 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 51.4¢ | $362.51 | $496.94 | +$134.43 | 48% 413-442 (855) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Underavg 51.5¢ | $219.69 | $225.26 | +$5.57 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51.5¢ | $116.93 | $161.17 | +$44.24 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46.5¢ | $102.76 | $64.09 | -$38.67 | |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $323.35 | $213.06 | -$110.29 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $5.06 | $6.53 | +$1.47 | 54% 2299-1927 (4226) |
Invested
$1,531.68
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$782.13
Record
53%
597-533 (1130)
Invested
$2,303.46
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$849.7
Record
54%
16556-13890 (30446)
Both legs:
Invested
$362.51
Value
$496.94
PnL
+$134.43
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
Invested
$219.69
Value
$225.26
PnL
+$5.57
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
Both legs:
Invested
$323.35
Value
$213.06
PnL
-$110.29
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.06
Value
$6.53
PnL
+$1.47
Record
54%
2299-1927 (4226)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.