Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 234.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 51¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 27

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 13%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

-$94.16

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,103

Combined PnL-$474.23

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,863

Combined PnL+$380.08

Over — 13%Under — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 58.5¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$138.22	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.2¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$88.76
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.5¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$49.47
TA takeormake	Overavg 54.2¢	$3.8K	$3.4K	-$474.23	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 45.8¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$488.75	53% 597-533 (1130)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 47.8¢	$723.68	$605.87	-$117.81	48% 413-442 (855)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$47.84	$42.12	-$5.72	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$25.96	$28.76	+$2.8	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$18.15	$17.48	-$0.67	54% 2299-1927 (4226)
balthazarCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$3.4	$7.8	+$4.4	62% 20216-12621 (32837)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 25.4¢	$6.94	$7.51	+$8.33	57% 12546-9489 (22035)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,869.44

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$138.22

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

Both legs:

Under$1,925.5638.2¢+$88.76

Over$1,943.8758.5¢+$49.47

takeormake

Over

Invested

$3,848.35

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$474.23

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$1,903.61

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$488.75

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$723.68

Value

$605.87

PnL

-$117.81

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.84

Value

$42.12

PnL

-$5.72

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.96

Value

$28.76

PnL

+$2.8

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.15

Value

$17.48

PnL

-$0.67

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

balthazarCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.4

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$4.4

Record

62%

20216-12621 (32837)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.94

Value

$7.51

PnL

+$8.33

Record

57%

12546-9489 (22035)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.