Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 232.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 56¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$51.25
55.4¢ → 56.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 44.9¢ | $714.87 | $907.76 | +$192.89 | 54% 16556-13890 (30446) |
TA takeormake | Overavg 66.1¢ | $990.21 | $756.42 | -$233.8 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Overavg 52.2¢ | $557.29 | $579.15 | +$21.86 | 48% 413-442 (855) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.2¢ | $350.01 | $382.44 | +$32.43 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.3¢ | $207.29 | $196.71 | -$10.57 | |
MI mishipolisCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $14.8 | $14.95 | +$0.2 | 50% 4379-4294 (8673) |
 balthazar<$100 | Overavg 82¢ | $16.4 | $13.4 | -$3 | 62% 20216-12621 (32837) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $15.68 | $9.24 | -$6.44 | 57% 27287-20178 (47465) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 40.1¢ | $6.2 | $5.1 | -$1.1 | 54% 2299-1927 (4226) |
Invested
$714.87
Value
$907.76
PnL
+$192.89
Record
54%
16556-13890 (30446)
Invested
$990.21
Value
$756.42
PnL
-$233.8
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
Invested
$557.29
Value
$579.15
PnL
+$21.86
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
Both legs:
Invested
$14.8
Value
$14.95
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
4379-4294 (8673)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16.4
Value
$13.4
PnL
-$3
Record
62%
20216-12621 (32837)
Invested
$15.68
Value
$9.24
PnL
-$6.44
Record
57%
27287-20178 (47465)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.2
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$1.1
Record
54%
2299-1927 (4226)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.