Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$13.29

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,791

Combined PnL-$23.54

Over4 traders

Total Value$578.01

Total Shares1,208

Combined PnL+$10.25

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Underavg 53¢	$4.7K	$2.5K	-$23.75	55% 1215-984 (2199)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 47¢	$470	$480	+$10	54% 5135-4443 (9578)
KK kkpay19888CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$70.97	$70.97	+$0	53% 499-436 (935)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 52¢	$21.45	$21.66	+$0.21	55% 14758-12308 (27066)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$16.92	$17.28	+$0.36	57% 23971-18438 (42409)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$9.87	$9.77	-$0.1	55% 2063-1679 (3742)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Under

Invested

$4,749.96

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$23.75

Record

55%

1215-984 (2199)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$470

Value

$480

PnL

+$10

Record

54%

5135-4443 (9578)

kkpay19888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.97

Value

$70.97

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

499-436 (935)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$21.45

Value

$21.66

PnL

+$0.21

Record

55%

14758-12308 (27066)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.92

Value

$17.28

PnL

+$0.36

Record

57%

23971-18438 (42409)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.87

Value

$9.77

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

2063-1679 (3742)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.