Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 52¢ · $39K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 29%
1 arb excluded
$38.6K
-$159.22
53.6¢ → 51.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA DaBossHogg | Overavg 53.6¢ | $38.4K | $19.8K | -$801.1 | 51% 205-198 (403) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 46.6¢ | $9.3K | $9.6K | +$371.3 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $8.2K | $4.0K | +$206.2 | 52% 4617-4297 (8914) |
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$20.56 | 62% 3928-2392 (6320) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$53.94 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.9¢ | $945.98 | $912.6 | -$33.38 | |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Underavg 46.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$89.6 | 50% 1084-1075 (2159) |
 ComingBackCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$31.35 | 62% 3828-2394 (6222) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Underavg 46.8¢ | $96.97 | $100.06 | +$3.25 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 52¢ | $316.12 | $3.8 | +$2.89 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
Invested
$38,444.4
Value
$19.8K
PnL
-$801.1
Record
51%
205-198 (403)
Invested
$9,280.51
Value
$9.6K
PnL
+$371.3
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Invested
$8,247.88
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$206.2
Record
52%
4617-4297 (8914)
Invested
$2,186.6
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$20.56
Record
62%
3928-2392 (6320)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,822.4
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$89.6
Record
50%
1084-1075 (2159)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,003.2
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$31.35
Record
62%
3828-2394 (6222)
Invested
$96.97
Value
$100.06
PnL
+$3.25
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
VeryLucky888Invested
$316.12
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$2.89
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.