Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Hawks (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rockets (-6.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (80%) · Rockets at 44¢ · $728 held · ends Oct 27

Rockets44¢Hawks56¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 80%

Total Value

$728.25

Combined PnL

$14.67

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 43.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets44%

Hawks56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets4 traders

Total Value$667.54

Total Shares1,501

Combined PnL+$14.13

Hawks1 trader

Total Value$60.71

Total Shares108

Combined PnL+$0.54

Rockets — 80%Hawks — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Rocketsavg 43¢	$560.51	$573.84	+$13.32	54% 16108-13511 (29619)
VeryLucky888<$100	Hawksavg 56¢	$60.71	$60.71	+$0.54	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 43.3¢	$33.23	$33.26	+$0.1	57% 26839-19987 (46826)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 43¢	$70.74	$30.77	+$0.35	52% 269-246 (515)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 43¢	$29.67	$29.67	+$0.35	63% 6058-3547 (9605)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Rockets

Invested

$560.51

Value

$573.84

PnL

+$13.32

Record

54%

16108-13511 (29619)

VeryLucky888<$100

Hawks

Invested

$60.71

Value

$60.71

PnL

+$0.54

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$33.23

Value

$33.26

PnL

+$0.1

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$70.74

Value

$30.77

PnL

+$0.35

Record

52%

269-246 (515)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$29.67

Value

$29.67

PnL

+$0.35

Record

63%

6058-3547 (9605)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.