Spread: Rockets (-4.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (100%) · Rockets at 51¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
3
Rockets 100%
$12.9K
-$37.04
51.2¢ → 51¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FeedTheBigBird | Rocketsavg 51¢ | $12.3K | $12.3K | -$0 | 50% 31-31 (62) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Rocketsavg 54.8¢ | $612.88 | $575.92 | -$36.96 | 53% 348-311 (659) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Rocketsavg 51¢ | $34.85 | $34.85 | -$0.09 | 57% 24505-18852 (43357) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.