Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Rockets (60%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rockets (-3.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (67%) · Hawks at 40¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 27

Rockets60¢Hawks40¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 40¢

-17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets60%

Hawks40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks6 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares18,527

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Rockets3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,039

Combined PnL+$173.12

Hawks — 67%Rockets — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrHawks 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hawksavg 48.2¢	$9.6K	$10.7K	+$1.1K	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
JU justaluckydude	Rocketsavg 41.3¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$129.11	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Hawksavg 49¢	$915.17	$938.63	+$23.46	48% 413-442 (855)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 49¢	$554.13	$525.63	-$28.5
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 46.8¢	$361.04	$413	+$51.96
TA takeormake	Rocketsavg 49.9¢	$822.57	$870.55	+$47.98	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
RJ RJW1	Rocketsavg 55¢	$264.82	$141.68	-$3.97	41% 89-129 (218)
RN1CTR	Hawksavg 45¢	$112.5	$132.5	+$1.25	54% 54908-46856 (101764)
AN Anon455CTR	Hawksavg 58¢	$111.3	$105.7	-$5.6	56% 2435-1897 (4332)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Hawksavg 44.8¢	$49.77	$55.5	+$5.73	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Hawksavg 48¢	$9.6	$10	+$0.4	50% 4379-4294 (8673)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Hawksavg 59¢	$8.85	$7.95	-$0.9	57% 12546-9489 (22035)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hawks

Invested

$9,571.3

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

justaluckydude

Rockets

Invested

$1,530.23

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$129.11

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$915.17

Value

$938.63

PnL

+$23.46

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

Both legs:

Hawks$554.1349¢-$28.5

Rockets$361.0446.8¢+$51.96

takeormake

Rockets

Invested

$822.57

Value

$870.55

PnL

+$47.98

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

RJW1

Rockets

Invested

$264.82

Value

$141.68

PnL

-$3.97

Record

41%

89-129 (218)

RN1CTR

Hawks

Invested

$112.5

Value

$132.5

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

54908-46856 (101764)

Anon455CTR

Hawks

Invested

$111.3

Value

$105.7

PnL

-$5.6

Record

56%

2435-1897 (4332)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$49.77

Value

$55.5

PnL

+$5.73

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$9.6

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

4379-4294 (8673)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$8.85

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$0.9

Record

57%

12546-9489 (22035)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrHawks 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.