Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Rockets (66%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hawks vs. Rockets
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (75%) · Hawks at 35¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Hawks
8
Hawks 75%
$1.3K
$31.62
33.9¢ → 34.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidHawks at 35%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 66%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Hawksavg 34¢ | $625.41 | $653 | +$27.59 | 54% 1805-1513 (3318) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Rocketsavg 66¢ | $506.36 | $506.36 | +$0 | 53% 327-289 (616) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Rocketsavg 65¢ | $47.58 | $47.94 | +$0.37 | 65% 1609-858 (2467) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Hawksavg 34.3¢ | $34.54 | $34.88 | +$0.33 | 57% 23656-18201 (41857) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Hawksavg 34.1¢ | $16.71 | $17.4 | +$0.68 | 61% 5222-3289 (8511) |
DO DolphinBallerCTR<$100 | Hawksavg 22¢ | $5.24 | $7.98 | +$2.74 | 46% 72-83 (155) |
JI jiafanCTR<$100 | Hawksavg 34¢ | $2 | $2.09 | +$0.03 | 60% 1391-922 (2313) |
LA lavendergoomsCTR<$100 | Hawksavg 36¢ | $1.8 | $1.78 | -$0.13 | 60% 2466-1627 (4093) |
Invested
$625.41
Value
$653
PnL
+$27.59
Record
54%
1805-1513 (3318)
Invested
$506.36
Value
$506.36
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
327-289 (616)
Invested
$47.58
Value
$47.94
PnL
+$0.37
Record
65%
1609-858 (2467)
Invested
$34.54
Value
$34.88
PnL
+$0.33
Record
57%
23656-18201 (41857)
Invested
$16.71
Value
$17.4
PnL
+$0.68
Record
61%
5222-3289 (8511)
Invested
$5.24
Value
$7.98
PnL
+$2.74
Record
46%
72-83 (155)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.09
PnL
+$0.03
Record
60%
1391-922 (2313)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.78
PnL
-$0.13
Record
60%
2466-1627 (4093)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.