Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 82¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$3.9K
$7.25
85.8¢ → 82¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $3.1K | $3.0K | -$68.5 | 89% 4582-544 (5126) |
 Warren-BuffettCTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $700 | $900 | +$75 | 65% 853-460 (1313) |
ME melonmanm<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $10.9 | $12.45 | +$1.55 | 65% 483-260 (743) |
 DOG-UndressedVersionCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $7 | $6.2 | -$0.8 | 52% 2276-2138 (4414) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.