Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 5.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 85¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 26

Over15¢Under85¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

-$321

Smart Money Entry

88.2¢ → 85.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over15%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,937

Combined PnL-$170.34

Over4 traders

Total Value$678.6

Total Shares4,218

Combined PnL-$150.66

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 83.2¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$241.38	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 93.3¢	$3.1K	$2.7K	-$411.07	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 86¢	$430	$427.5	-$2.5	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 17.6¢	$452.59	$376.59	-$75.02	58% 1820-1333 (3153)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 24.8¢	$288.05	$261.83	-$26.22	52% 7497-7034 (14531)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 66.6¢	$84.16	$193.44	+$109.28	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
└ Over leg	Overavg 2.8¢	$9.59	$121.07	+$111.48
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.6¢	$74.57	$72.36	-$2.21
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 32.3¢	$22.59	$23.99	+$1.4	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 77.3¢	$20.81	$22.66	+$1.85	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$67.01	$16.19	-$50.82	52% 7299-6610 (13909)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,964.01

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$241.38

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,101.2

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$411.07

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$430

Value

$427.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$452.59

Value

$376.59

PnL

-$75.02

Record

58%

1820-1333 (3153)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$288.05

Value

$261.83

PnL

-$26.22

Record

52%

7497-7034 (14531)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$84.16

Value

$193.44

PnL

+$109.28

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

Both legs:

Over$9.592.8¢+$111.48

Under$74.5766.6¢-$2.21

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.59

Value

$23.99

PnL

+$1.4

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$20.81

Value

$22.66

PnL

+$1.85

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.01

Value

$16.19

PnL

-$50.82

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.0%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.